Current Events
June 2009
By Steve Leeper

In a bit of a change of pace, I am writing this time to report on the NPT Review Conference Preparatory Meeting (PrepCom) in New York last May and to ask for your help. I do this for reasons that I hope will become clear as you read.

The difference between this PrepCom and all the previous NPT conferences Mayors for Peace has attended (2002 through 2008) was amazing. Thanks in large part to President Obama, the overall mood was one of cooperation. Japanese Ambassador Tarui assured me personally that, as far as he could tell, every country seemed determined to make the 2010 Review Conference next May a significant step toward nuclear disarmament.

In the PrepCom meetings themselves, country after country rose and, after quoting President Obama’s speech in Prague, expressed its own determination to help create a nuclear-weapon-free world. It was as if the whole world had suddenly heard the message of the hibakusha. Appropriately, the hibakusha who attended (four from Nagasaki, four plus a 12-year-old hibakusha sansei [third generation] from Hiroshima) came home hopeful and full of energy. Suddenly, as Mayor Akiba said, we are all in the Obamajority.

So what is the catch? Why does the campaign still need your help?

The problems are sincerity and speed. I actually do believe that President Obama sincerely wants to lead us to a nuclear-weapon-free world. However, he is surrounded in the US and elsewhere by powerful forces that will do everything in their power to block him. Furthermore, many observers harbor grave doubts about the sincerity of the nuclear-weapon states. After all, the nuclear-weapon states have been promising to eliminate their nuclear weapons for 40 years and have never taken a serious step in that direction. President Obama’s speech is seen by some as a show, a pretense designed to trick the non-nuclear-weapon states into continuing to postpone their development of nuclear weapons. They suspect the nuclear-weapon states secretly intend to keep their nuclear advantage forever.

This suspicion is reinforced by the tendency of the nuclear-weapon states still to refuse to accept a concrete time frame for abolition or even negotiations. That is, everyone seems willing to say they want a nuclear-weapon-free world, but they refuse to say how or by when they will achieve it. For the non-nuclear-weapon states, vague promises of disarmament sometime in the uncertain future are no longer credible. So again, as in 2005, despite the best efforts of all involved, the review conference of 2010 could easily end in failure, with the non-nuclear-weapon states demanding a time certain and the nuclear-weapon states refusing such a commitment.

The pressure for speed has to do with Israel. Though they have yet to admit or deny it, everyone knows Israel has nuclear weapons. That being the case, certain other countries in the Middle East are under tremendous pressure to get nuclear weapons of their own. Before the last NPT PrepCom, Egyptian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ambassador Hossam Zaki said, "Achieving security and stability in the Middle East requires the just and full application of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and the West's pressure on Iran to relinquish its nuclear program will be futile because it ignores Israel's nuclear capabilities, which are in our view, the main and biggest threat to security in the region. The only way to solve the WMDs problem in the region, including the Iranian file, is to demand Israel to join the NPT. 

Arab countries will not stand hand-folded in the face of the spread of nuclear weapons in the Middle East, and will not accept to be placed in a position in which Israel insists on possessing nuclear weapons and Iran sticks to its nuclear program without them moving to protect their own security.”

I personally heard from another Egyptian diplomat that the Middle East has resisted as long as they can. Because of the US-India nuclear deal, the NPT “has an arrow in the heart.” He made it crystal clear. Either the nuclear-weapon states get rid of their nuclear weapons, or we will all have them.

The key to this problem is grassroots concern. People around the world have to tell the United States and all nuclear-weapon states in no uncertain terms, “You MUST make a time-bound commitment to the abolition of nuclear weapons.” If the people take a strong stand, the leaders will follow. If the people fail to take such a stand and meekly accept whatever vague promise the nuclear-weapon states offer, nuclear weapons will spread across our planet.

I have asked two Iranian ambassadors to Japan if Iran is actually working on nuclear weapons and I have been told, “No, our program is strictly for peaceful purposes.” Furthermore, the IAEA has said clearly that they have found no evidence that Iran is developing a nuclear weapon. I honestly do not know the truth of this situation, but I can tell you that the private conventional wisdom at the UN among certain diplomats is, “Two years. Iran will have nuclear weapons in two years.” Thus, if the 2010 NPT Review Conference fails to prevent further proliferation, the Middle East could be full of nuclear weapons and might even experience a third nuclear catastrophe before the next scheduled review conference in 2015.

At this point, the only hope for preventing proliferation is the Hiroshima-Nagasaki Protocol. The Hiroshima-Nagasaki Protocol is the only proposal now on or even near the table that represents the kind of persuasive, time-bound commitment to a nuclear-weapon-free world that could convince the states with nuclear ambitions that the nuclear-weapon states are serious about finding and eliminating all nuclear weapons and fissile materials. Only a commitment of this magnitude can persuade the nuclear have-nots that money spent on nuclear weapons would be wasted because they are about to be outlawed and eliminated.

The key to the success of the Hiroshima-Nagasaki Protocol at the 2010 Review Conference is whether or not it is supported and promoted by the people. That is why we need your help. Most governments are split on the issue of nuclear weapons. Some leaders understand the importance of pressing for abolition while others harbor the delusion that nuclear weapons can benefit them or their country in some way. To strengthen the leaders who are working for disarmament, it is essential that the people stand up right now and shout loudly their demand to be liberated permanently from the nuclear threat. If people everywhere show strong support for the Hiroshima-Nagasaki Protocol, it will leap from obscurity to the front burner.

This Protocol is not a convention. It does not require any precipitous action that would threaten the current balance of power. It is simply a commitment to the goal President Obama and the vast majority of nations have already espoused, a nuclear-weapon-free world. In essence it stipulates three measures. First, it calls for an immediate halt to all acquisition or development activities. This element is necessary to eliminate the discrepancy between the haves and the have-nots. Second, it requires that disarmament negotiations start immediately and continue until a nuclear weapon convention is signed. This element is necessary to persuade those with nuclear ambitions that the nuclear-weapon states are serious about disarmament. Third, it stipulates that a convention be signed by 2015 and all nuclear weapons be eliminated by 2020. This time element is necessary to distinguish this commitment from 40 years of previous open-ended promises that were never honored. The year 2019 is when all nuclear weapons will be gone if the nuclear-weapon states continue disassembling them at the current rate. Thus, anyone proposing a time longer than 2020 is actually calling for the disarmament process to be slowed down.

The commitment embodied by the Hiroshima-Nagasaki Protocol is vital. It is supported by what we in Hiroshima are now calling the Obamajority or, sometimes, the Globamajority. This is the vast global majority of nations and people on this planet seeking permanent liberation from the nuclear threat. Only a time-bound commitment at this level can prevent the collapse of the non-proliferation regime and keep nuclear weapons from spinning out of control.

The struggle against nuclear weapons needs your help in three ways. First, we need you to take part in our signature campaign. Please start by signing our petition, which you can find at:
https://www.ssl-hiroins.city.hiroshima.jp/pcf/jp/form.htm.
Then, please go out and collect the signatures of your friends and relatives. We will be happy to send you any materials you may need.

Second, help us recruit more mayors for Mayors for Peace. Our rapid growth is our strength, so if you live in a city that is not a member, please go to your mayor and ask him or her to join. Again, we will be glad to send you the materials and give you the support you need to make a good case. You can find out if your city is a member at www.mayorsforpeace.org, scroll down to “members.”

Third, please donate to the 2020 Vision Campaign. A large-scale, well-organized campaign costs money. Hiroshima and Nagasaki cannot support such a campaign alone. We need organizers. We need media exposure, which means we need additional funds, and every little bit helps. Please give what you can. Send a check to:

Mayors for Peace Campaign
2247 Venetian Dr.
Atlanta, GA 30311

I know what I am asking is not easy, but these are not easy times. The human family will decide next May whether to eliminate nuclear weapons or let them spread uncontrolled around our planet. It is absolutely vital to the safety, happiness, and even survival of our children and their children that we make the right decision. Please do what you can and do it now.